Business
Risks of Climate Change to the
Public Sector in Scotland
CC02
CC02
Final Report
CC02Appendices
Report
November
2005
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
to research
The
IPCC Third Assessment Report presents an increasing body of
observations that
show a warming world and changes in global and regional climate systems. It also predicts
potentially significant
changes in the climate in future years.
Much
of the policy response to this evidence has focused on mitigation, to
reduce
the threat of future warming and climate change.
However, given historic and current emissions we are
already
committed to some level of future climate change. Adaptation moves
beyond the
analysis of climate change effects, and focuses on risks and
opportunities
where action needs to be taken to adapt to climate change in the short,
medium
and longer-term.
The
purpose of this research project has been:
- To consider the extent of risk of
climate change to five public sector bodies in Scotland:
- Scottish Environment Protection
Agency (SEPA).
- Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH).
- Forestry Commission Scotland (FCS).
- Scottish Water (SW).
- VisitScotland (VS).
- To make recommendations for
adaptation strategies for each organisation.
- To assist the organisations to put
in place appropriate management responses.
The
main focus has been to consider what the public sector must do to adapt
to
future change.
Objectives
of research
The
project objectives were:
- To identify key climate change
impacts for each organisation, using the UKCIP02 scenarios and a review
of the
organisation’s policy and operational responsibilities.
- To undertake a risk assessment for
identified impacts (including threats and adaptation opportunities
arising from
climate change), and to quantify these risks as appropriate.
- To devise, using a participative
approach, adaptation management strategies for each of the risks
identified
above.
- To help each organisation to put in
place the capacity to further develop and implement adaptation
strategies
beyond the life of this project.
- To recommend further research on
climate change adaptation.
Methodology
The
study was undertaken by a multi-disciplinary
team led by AEA Technology Environment in collaboration with
Metroeconomica, HR
Wallingford, Risk Solutions, and the Environmental Change Unit (Oxford
University). The approach was:
- The climate change scenarios and the
impacts literature were reviewed to identify the cross-sectoral risks
and
adaptation opportunities of future climate change in Scotland. These were then considered
for each of the
five organisations.
- Using interviews, the risks and
adaptation opportunities were assessed in detail for each organisation,
and
prioritised using a simple risk analysis to assess the probability and
the
consequences of effects. In
parallel,
the study team investigated the activities and responsibilities of each
of the
individual organisations and assessed the current risk management
approach in
place, to help design appropriate responses.
- Using participative
workshops,
a set of potential adaptation responses was identified for the priority
effects
for each organisation, and recommendations made on how these could be
progressed.
- Finally, the study looked at the
synergies and conflicts between the risks and plans for the five
different public
sector organisations, and made a number of recommendations.
Climate
Change Scenarios
The
UKCIP02 Scenarios show important climatic changes for Scotland in
future
years. There is a
growing trend of
warmer, wetter, and cloudier winters, and warmer, drier summers,
combined with
more extreme weather (such as heavy
rainfall events). For
example, under the high scenario, Scotland could be (on
average) 2.5oC to 4oC
warmer than present by 2080, with
winter precipitation increasing by up to 35% in the south, east and
north east,
and summer precipitation decreasing by up to 50% in the south, central
and east
of Scotland.
Findings
The
changes predicted in the scenarios present significant risks for all
five
organisations, for example:
- For SEPA,
there are important risks over its responsibility to issue flood
warnings, and
its remit to improve water quality.
- For SNH,
there are concerns regarding loss of species and habitats where there
is low
adaptation potential and high vulnerability.
- For the
Forestry Commission, the long rotation lengths of most forest
plantations
(typically 50 to over 100 years), and the impact of climate on
operations will
clearly be important.
- For
Scottish Water, there will be significant implications from the changes
in
average rainfall and heavy rainfall events – these are
especially important
given the large infrastructure and long lifetimes in the water supply
industry.
- For
VisitScotland, there will be potential downsides, for example through
the
decline in Scottish skiing, but there will also be potential adaptation
opportunities for tourism growth in Scotland.
Risks
and adaptation opportunities have been prioritised for each
organisation, and
adaptation options have been drawn up – separating out those
that concern
strategic, operational and functional activities.
The analysis has identified those options that require
early
action (or at least early consideration of potential options).
Implications
The
tables in the report provide indicative adaptation options that would
begin to
address the priority risks and adaptation opportunities identified. In
most
cases these options represent additions or alterations to existing
programmes,
operations or research agendas, rather than entirely new initiatives.
In a
number of important areas, these suggestions could be started
immediately and
at low cost. Many of the adaptation options may also carry ancillary
benefits,
from strengthening resilience to current weather variability, to
increasing
awareness of environmental matters in general, to improving monitoring
and
decision-making procedures, and enhancing staff morale.
A
number of areas/options have links between the
organisations. The
five organisations
already have existing partnerships across a number of areas. However, the consideration
of risks,
adaptation opportunities and adaptation plans has highlighted a number
of areas
where potential synergies or conflicts exist, and partnerships could be
strengthened. The
most
important issues identified relate to:
- The potential opportunities for
collaborative actions to raise awareness, train staff and build
capacity in
adaptation (all).
- The need for consideration of
integrated flood warning, planning, management and defence (SEPA, SW,
and FCS).
- Enforcing regulations under the
Water Framework Directive, particularly regarding abstraction, and also
issues
regarding water quality (SEPA and SW).
- The need to discuss the potential
role of forestry in mitigation (all, but led by FCS).
- The targets for tourism growth in
Scotland and the development of sustainable tourism (VS and all).
- The opportunity to build adaptation
thinking into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEPA and all).
- The high vulnerability of ecosystems
and the need to consider a precautionary approach (SNH and all).
- The
need to co-ordinate the approach for defining the appropriate level of
adaptation in Scotland and the assessment framework for detailed
adaptation
plans (Scottish Executive and all).
- The
costs of adapting to reduce climate risks (all).
Recommendations
The
study has made a number of suggestions and recommendations:
- All
five organisations should ensure that climate change is added to the
corporate
risk register (at the start of the study, only one organisation had
done this –
one other has also done so during the time frame of the project). Further to this, all
organisations should consider incorporating climate change in planning
new
facilities and in all corporate plans/ risk management strategies.
- All five organisations should
initially focus on raising awareness of climate change and adaptation
as the
first stage in building adaptive capacity, both within its organisation
and
with external stakeholders. There
is
the potential for collaborative action between organisations to achieve
this.
- Following this, each organisation
should progress the analysis of the adaptation options identified for
the key
impacts. This
should focus on no
regrets options
(justified by current
climate conditions), followed by low-regrets options (made
because of
climate change but at minimal cost).
They could also begin a more in-depth analysis in
relation to other
possible adaptation actions, to investigate the costs and benefits of
action
taking into account the uncertainties. This is particularly important
when
longer time frames are involved, or higher costs implied. This should be developed
following guidance
by the Scottish Executive on adaptation policy for Scotland.
- There is a need to for the five
organisations to work together to realise the mutual
benefits, to reduce
conflicts and to enhance synergies.
This may also involve Scottish organisations in other
sectors. We
strongly recommend a
joint workshop to discuss the issues, synergies and conflicts to
progress this.
- In
parallel to this, there is a need for the Scottish Executive to:
- Provide
a policy framework for adaptation, defining what successful adaptation
is (and
to avoid mal-adaptation).
- Promote
and coordinate research on impacts, adaptation opportunities and
adaptation.
- Raise
the priority given to adaptation.
- Support
knowledge-sharing networks.
- Provide
methods and tools for adaptation planning.
- Mainstream
the integration of climate change into existing planning/policy systems.
Partnership
and communication are critical to this process.
Key
words: climate change, impacts, adaptation
Copies
of the two reports are available in hard copy:
CC02
Final Report at £25.00
CC02
Appendices Report at £25.00
Each
report is available separately in electronic format at £20.00
+ VAT
All
prices less 20% to FWR members.
N.B.
The reports are available for download from the SNIFFER Website