PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE IN NORTHERN IRELAND

PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE IN NORTHERN IRELAND
UKCC13
January 2007

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background to research

The climate of Northern Ireland is already changing. Air temperature is rising and the number of hot days is increasing; the proportion of rainfall falling in summer is decreasing, while winters are slightly wetter (EHS, 2004). These changes are expected to accelerate over the coming century. Average temperature may rise by 3°C or more; summer rainfall may fall by up to 50% while winters may be 25% wetter (Hulme et al., 2002). Furthermore, relative sea level may begin to rise.

Although there are ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change, principally by reducing emissions, at least some climate change is now inevitable. Adaptation to climate change – reducing risks and realising opportunities – is therefore required. It is vital that the community and key stakeholders within it have a clear understanding of potential impacts and response strategies. In particular public bodies, with their policy-making, service provision and advisory roles, need to be at the forefront in risk management and the delivery of sustainable development.

This report examines the ways in which Northern Ireland must prepare to meet both the opportunities and threats presented by the impacts of a changing climate. It focuses specifically on the impacts on, and the need for adaptation by, the public sector in Northern Ireland.

Objectives of research

The five main objectives of this study were to:

Provide an analysis (updating the 2002 SNIFFER scoping report), based on the themes of Economic Infrastructure, Built Environment, Natural Environment and Social Wellbeing, of climate change impacts upon Northern Ireland, using the UK Climate Impacts Programme 2002 (UKCIP02) scenarios and recent research in the field relevant to Northern Ireland.
Produce a risk analysis of identified impacts with estimated likelihood of risk and resource implications.
Produce an adaptation strategy for each impact, identifying the public sector bodies responsible for delivery.
Provide an analysis of the effect on public services (building on the 2005 EHS guidance), specifically on the key outcomes related to the Government’s three priority themes of Economic Competitiveness, Equality and Community Cohesion and Better Public Services.
Produce a technical report of climate impacts for use by policy experts. In addition, a separate non-technical summary report has been produced.

Climate change

Current climate, in particular extreme weather, can present difficulties and the examples documented provide some indication of the sensitivity to climate change. For this reason, it is recommended that information on sensitivity to current weather is collated by public sector organisations.
The UKCIP08 climate change scenarios, due in 2008, are not likely to alter the strategic findings of this report. However, significantly more detail will be provided, including probabilistic projections, and this will be particularly useful for detailed technical assessments for key sectors – an essential next step to this report. It is recommended that a brief assessment of the UKCIP08 scenarios is made on their publication, reviewing any changes in projections and highlighting the enhanced data available for stakeholders in Northern Ireland. It is also recommended that outputs of Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) research are reviewed with respect to application in Northern Ireland.

There remain significant uncertainties associated with climate change scenarios and impact assessment and this has been recognised through this study as a significant barrier to planning for adaptation, particularly in funding detailed studies and investments. A large amount of research is currently underway regarding uncertainty and approaches to quantification and it is recommended that detailed assessments review the findings.

Rapid climate change, for example leading to a decline in the North Atlantic Drift, is considered unlikely over the next 100 years. It is recommended that a watching brief is kept on current research in this area and if necessary alternative ‘side-swipe’ scenarios are investigated to test the resilience of Northern Ireland.

The development and assessment of socio-economic scenarios for Northern Ireland is recommended for use alongside climate change scenarios. These should build on the work being undertaken as part of the UKCIP / Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council BESEECH study.

Climate change impacts

Climate change impacts have been identified for each sector, with a link made between the climate variable and the receptor. The risk assessment has classified each of the impacts as a threat, opportunity, lost opportunity or benefit. This method is a valuable way to prioritise impacts and adaptive responses, and it is recommended that a risk-based approach is adopted in more detailed impact assessments.

The main impacts of climate change have been considered in terms of the principal sectoral activities in Northern Ireland and are summarised below.

The Natural Environment

Conservation, biodiversity and habitats

Threats to the conservation, biodiversity and habitats of Northern Ireland include:

Distribution and species composition of habitats will change in response to warmer winters.
Increase in range of invasive non-native species may threaten ecosystems, in response to warmer temperatures.
Inter-tidal habitats, salt marshes and mudflats threatened through flooding and erosion.
Loss of coastal grazing marsh.
Estuarine and river ecology threatened by tidal flooding.
Warmer sea temperatures affecting phytoplankton communities – the resulting decline in sand eel populations would adversely affect a wide range of seabirds.

The opportunities that a changing climate could bring to the conservation, biodiversity and habitats of Northern Ireland (e.g. expansion of one species, wetter winters for some habitats) tend to be accompanied by equivalent threats (e.g. loss of another species and drier summers respectively).

Fisheries

Threats to fisheries in and around Northern Ireland include the following:

Increased frequency of flooding could lead to decreased fish egg survival and washing away of juvenile salmon.
Lower flows, lower water quality and increased temperatures leading to fish kills.
Increased temperatures can be lethal for some fish such as salmon.
The melting of the polar ice pack has cooled the northern Atlantic, reducing the extent of thermally attractive habitat for Salmon.
Angling affected by disturbance of breeding season of fish.

Opportunities for Fisheries in and around Northern Ireland from a changing climate are limited but warmer waters may provide benefits to aquaculture including higher growth rates and new species.

Agriculture

Threats to agriculture in Northern Ireland include:

Field drainage issues in wetter weather
Potential impacts on crop yields
Potential impacts on animal health

Opportunities for agriculture in Northern Ireland include:

Potential for growing new crops.
Reduced cold weather problems including frost damage and a decrease in time that animals need to be kept indoors.

Forestry

Threats to forestry in Northern Ireland include the following:

Hotter, drier summers will increase water uptake by woodlands, restricting planting in areas with limited water availability.
Risk of increasing frequency of forest fires, dependent on species and age structure of forest.
Changing incidence of insect pest and disease outbreaks e.g. increasing impact of the green spruce aphid on commercial plantations of Sitka spruce.
Extended summer droughts leading to widespread tree mortality.

Opportunities for forestry in Northern Ireland include:

Higher potential productivity resulting from increased warmth and higher CO2 levels.
Changing climatic conditions will alter site suitability of tree species that are currently planted and this may bring benefit in some areas.
Increased commercial planting as part of a mitigation strategy.
Expansion of woodland, including riparian woodland, may be required to offset soil erosion and fluvial flooding, to provide shade for fish and amenity for leisure activities.

Water resources

Threats to water resources in Northern Ireland include the following:

Lower flows may cause problems for users relating to abstraction, ability to dilute effluent, aquatic ecology and recreation.
Increased temperatures may cause problems with river and reservoir water quality e.g. Dissolved Oxygen depletion, algal blooms, physiological impact on fish.
Storms may cause more Combined Sewer Overflows, damaging aquatic life.
Increased rainfall causing erosion of soil and leaching of agrochemical and agricultural wastes with problems for aquatic life, abstractions and river users.
Reduction in volume of sewer base flow may result in blockages, leading to environmental health and flooding problems.
Drier, hotter summers will increase demand for water, affecting ability of abstractors to meet requirements.
Lower summer runoff leading to reduced flushing of estuaries and lakes with implications for shell fisheries, lake ecology and abstractors.
Higher evaporation and lower inflows leading to reduction in open water storage e.g. Lough Neagh, which may affect marginal habitats and abstraction.
Increase in pests and change in life cycle of aquatic and land-based organisms.
Summer storms, following dry periods, may lead to high pollutant loads, damaging aquatic habitats.

Opportunities are limited but increasingly wet winters could provide an opportunity for increased water storage. Business opportunities may arise from increased demand for water efficient products.

The Built Environment

Coastal and flood risk management

Threats to coastal and flood risk management in Northern Ireland include the following:

Increase in winter fluvial flooding, with impacts on: settlements; farms and agricultural land; natural heritage; transport infrastructure; the economy; and health.
Increase in flooding, with impacts on: urban infrastructure: buildings (including built heritage), utilities and transport; businesses; the economy; and health.
Increase in flooding and erosion at the coast, with impacts on: coastal habitats; coastal settlements; coastal transport infrastructure; and agricultural land.

No opportunities or benefits have been identified in relation to coastal and flood risk management; however, there may be opportunities in related areas e.g. new habitat creation projects.

Buildings, construction and planning

Threats to buildings, construction and planning in Northern Ireland include the following:

Increase in winter flooding, with impacts on: settlements; buildings and built heritage; transport infrastructure; water infrastructure (supply and drainage); the economy; health and comfort; urban green spaces; and construction.
Increase in summer temperatures and drought, with impacts on: buildings and settlements; infrastructure; green spaces and soil moisture; construction; urban heat island; and waste management.
Sea level rise leading to an increase in flooding and erosion at the coast, with impacts on: settlements and buildings; infrastructure (transport, water, communications, waste); and coastal urban green spaces.

Economic Infrastructure

Business

Business is sensitive to generic impacts such as flooding as well as weather-related effects on product demand. Threats to business in Northern Ireland include:

Wetter winters leading to damage of stock and premises, supply chain problems, loss or reputation and insurance and investment issues.
Problems of exposure to outdoor workers in hotter summers.
Decline or shift in demand for certain seasonal goods.

However, there will also be opportunities for businesses which can adapt, for example:

Boost to sales of summer goods e.g. water retention products, drought tolerant plants.
Opportunity for business growth in outdoor activities and al-fresco retail.
Increased demand for cooling products.

Insurance

With regards to insurance, climate change is likely to affect customer needs and the nature of cover, while altering the pattern of claims and risk to which insurers are exposed. Threats to insurance in Northern Ireland include:

Increase in inland and potentially coastal flooding under wetter winter and rise in sea level, leading to an increase in flood-related property claims and business continuity claims.
Increase in subsidence claims in hotter, drier summers.

No opportunities or benefits have been identified for the insurance sector overall, although there will be opportunities for new products and a reduction in certain claims (e.g. cold-weather related accidents).

Transport

Transport, and in particular roads, are already vulnerable to extreme weather. Threats to transport in Northern Ireland include:

Wetter winters and inland flooding, leading to: infrastructure damage; problems for emergency services; delays to users; and road safety issues.
Wetter winters with increased flooding and scour, leading to destabilisation of bridge / embankment foundations.
Drier summers with drier soils and vegetation, leading to increased risk of fire and increased risk of subsidence (on clay soils).
Hotter summers with more extreme temperatures, leading to: increased discomfort / exposure for travellers; economic cost of infrastructure damage e.g. road rutting; and respiratory problems associated with deterioration in air quality.

The main opportunity for the sector will be the likely increase in demand for walking and cycling.

Tourism

Tourism will be affected by and will benefit from climate changes both in Northern Ireland and internationally. Specific risks for Northern Ireland include:

Wetter winters, which will affect outdoor tourism activities.
Coastal changes, which may cause flooding and degrade beaches.
Dry summers, which may cause water shortages and be detrimental to the natural environment.

Opportunities for tourism in Northern Ireland include:

Drier, hotter summers, which will increase domestic tourism opportunities.
Warmer winters, allowing more year round tourism.
More outdoor and water based activities due to hotter weather.

Energy

Threats to the energy sector include:

Heightened risk of subsidence and heave, leaving structures vulnerable to damage or collapse.
Greater demand for air conditioning in summer, altered demand profile and operational variations by power suppliers. Health implications for those without access to cool buildings.
Reduced soil moisture content and heightened risk of subsidence in vulnerable areas.
Greater levels of damage to power supply infrastructure (e.g. trees coming into contact with power lines).

Benefits under climate change include a reduction in winter heating needs and winter fuel poverty.

Social Wellbeing

Health

Threats to health in Northern Ireland include:

Coastal and riverine floods. Flooding is known to have serious impacts on physical and mental health.
Hotter summers with increased “heatwave” events, leading to increase in: hospital admissions; respiratory problems; heat-related mortality and morbidity; and occupational heat stress.
Hotter summers (and milder winters) leading to increased bacterial growth, and activity of pests (flies, rodents).
Longer summers leading to increased exposure to UV- and its consequent health effects.

Opportunities for health in Northern Ireland include:

Reduction in cold weather-related mortality and morbidity.
Potential improvement in public health related to increased opportunities for physical recreation.

Sport and recreation

Threats to sport and recreation in Northern Ireland include:

Wetter winters will affect outdoor sport and recreation (adverse conditions for play).
Dry weather may be detrimental to local habitats and species which are vital for nature based recreation
Reduced soil moisture will affect pitches and sports grounds.
Increase in storm intensity and frequency may cause the cancellation of outdoor activities.
Damage to sporting and recreation facilities, for example through flooding and drought.

Opportunities for sport and recreation in Northern Ireland include:

Drier, hotter summers will allow increased outdoor sport and recreation.
Increase in water based recreation and sports.
Warmer winter weather will allow more year round outdoor sport and recreation.

Cross-sector impacts

A number of potential cross-sector impacts have been identified. These relate to:

Increasing flood risk, with particular implications for the Built Environment and Economic Infrastructure.
A significant reduction in summer rainfall (and potential reduction in annual rainfall), with consequences for the Natural Environment.
Warmer summers (with more extreme hot days), causing a mixture of threats and opportunities in different geographical settings.
The potential for impacts on Biodiversity to affect Fisheries and, therefore, Tourism and Recreation.

Impacts on public services

The implications of each climate change impact on public services in Northern Ireland have been assessed and the relevant public bodies that may be responsible for developing and implementing adaptation measures identified. Some impacts directly affect public buildings, infrastructure and land; others affect processes, services and plans managed by public bodies. For most impacts, more than one Public Service Area and public body responsible for adaptation was identified, highlighting the need for a cross-sector, multi-agency approach to adaptation. Planning (and therefore the Planning Service) has a role in several sectors. The DOE needs to continue its co-ordinating role, to include leadership on raising awareness, monitoring and managing implementation. Strong links will also be required with the Office of First Minister and Deputy First Minister, the lead office on Sustainable Development.

There are a number of climate-sensitive policy outcomes related to Government’s priorities and spending plans. In general, climate change impacts will make it more difficult to meet the outcomes of the Government’s priority themes, but constraints can be minimised by building climate change adaptation into the action plans for the delivery of these outcomes. This is recognised in the Sustainable Development Strategy, which itself must consider the impacts of climate change in the delivery of each target. By considering climate change impacts now, policies can be ‘future proofed’ by planning adaptation. In this respect sustainable development can be a useful tool for promoting wider adaptation to climate change and this study will contribute to the key targets identified for climate change adaptation in the Strategy.

Adaptation to climate change impacts

The current approach to adaptation varies between sectors and between organisations within sectors. Some organisations are moving towards adaptation, at least in certain functions or with regards to particular strategies, but many are delaying, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach. This latter approach often involves building adaptive capacity, through research and networking. A particular outcome of the ‘wait and see’ approach to climate change adaptation is that there is generally a lack of sector-specific risk assessments for Northern Ireland. As a result, awareness, willingness to change and general sense of urgency to consider climate change adaptation within sector-specific planning is lacking.

For some sectors, whilst research is being undertaken to assess the potential impacts of a changing climate, this does not appear to be carried through into policy and strategy development. For example, despite the significant amount of climate change impact research in relation to biodiversity, there does not appear to be any clear co-ordination of strategic planning within and between the various bodies responsible to address climate change risks and planning for adaptation. This also means that the links to other sectors, for example between biodiversity, fisheries, tourism and recreation, are potentially missed.

The short-term pressures (resources, funding etc) on a number of sectors, such as health for example, have meant that there is very little political will to address climate change impacts. In other sectors, such as tourism, the business planning process tends to have a much shorter term focus and a more strategic or political response to climate change adaptation will be required.

It is recommended that climate change adaptation is given a higher priority across all sectors and within each of the public bodies identified as being responsible for adaptation.

Potential adaptation strategies have been identified for each of the impacts identified in the study. These are presented below.

The Natural Environment

Conservation, biodiversity and habitats:

Review of legislation to assess whether it will provide sufficient protection for priority / designated habitats in a changing climate and to identify whether revisions may be required.
Review of monitoring to assess whether existing systems are sufficiently sensitive to the effects of a changing climate and identify where new systems may be required.
Education and awareness: particularly focused on the human impact on species and habitats and the scale of the likely impacts of a changing climate.

Fisheries:

Further research focussing particularly on:
- those species more valuable to Northern Ireland for both biodiversity and economic reasons; and,
- potential advantages of new target species in the marine environment.
Review of the potential impacts on ports or river structures.

Agriculture:

More detailed assessment of risks and opportunities geographically specific to Northern Ireland agriculture.
Education and raising awareness: specific to Northern Ireland context and needs to inform and drive new practices.
Ongoing review of agricultural reform strategies, e.g. CAP reform, to ensure their flexibility in relation to a changing climate.

Forestry:

Review of how woodlands may help with adaptation across sectors – for example planting in flood plains can reduce downstream flood flows.
Further research and identification of a strategy for exploiting potential opportunities provided by climate change (including mitigation) for the Northern Ireland forestry sector.
Development of the Ecological Site Classification decision support system for aiding species selection under climate change scenarios to Northern Ireland to help in long term planning.
Development of Best Practice guidelines to ensure that forestry and woodland management in Northern Ireland is resilient to climate change. Gaps in current research should be addressed. Forestry sector should use risk assessments to formulate an adaptation strategy.

Water Resources:

More detailed modelling of impacts on Northern Ireland water resources, addressing long-term impacts on supplies, environment and water quality.
Further development of adaptive actions already identified, many of which include wider environmental benefits. Some adaptation may be realised through compliance with the Water Framework and Nitrates Directives.
Ensure risks and adaptation are adequately represented within long term planning for water resources e.g. in schemes such as reservoirs. Adaptation costs can be minimised by maintaining and improving current infrastructure.
Changes to the planning processes and regulatory framework for the water sector in Northern Ireland will provide opportunities for the development of adaptive planning.

The Built Environment

Coastal and flood risk management:

More specific modelling of the impacts on flood risk in Northern Ireland.
Strategic assessment of flood and erosion risks, and specific risk assessments for individual sites and infrastructure projects.
Evaluation of options such as upstream source control, flood storage and flood-protection, as well as non-structural methods such as flood warning and insurance.
Specific focus on options for managing coastal change, including construction of sea defences and managed realignment.
Cross-sector implications: overlaps with biodiversity provide both opportunities and threats that will need further specific risk assessment and adaptive planning.

Buildings, construction and planning:

Strategic actions: research, raising awareness, consideration of longer-term plans and seeking changes to planning policy.
Location and urban design actions: adaptation of infrastructure at risk, reduction of flood risk, use of green spaces and sustainable urban drainage systems.
Building design: Reducing heat gain within buildings, use of green roofs, opportunities for energy and water-efficient new-build houses.
Historic buildings: Improved management and maintenance of current buildings, development of strategies to adapt to changing climatic conditions.
Waste management: assess potential impacts, sites at risk and options for effective planning.
Review regulatory framework and incentives provided for adaptive planning within Northern Ireland.

Economic Infrastructure

Business:

Increase awareness of climate change threats and opportunities.
Address the lack of priority given to climate change due to short term business and economic pressures.
Develop specific tools, guidance and climate data for risk assessments that match business needs, which vary across the sector.
Embed climate change adaptation into existing risk management and decision support strategies.

Insurance:

Although the insurance industry is one of the most proactive sectors for climate change research, little research has examined Northern Ireland specifically. Insurers are expert at dealing with risk and insurance could be a valuable tool in managing future weather-related risk.
As insurers rely on sharing the burden of risk, insurance should be employed alongside other adaptation measures.

Transport:

Review of current standards for infrastructure such as drainage, earthworks, roads, railways, bridges, sea defences and tunnels and implications of a changing climate.
New highway infrastructure should include additional capacity to account for climate change, including paying particular attention to storm drainage, culvert sizing and flow attenuation.
Existing highway infrastructure should be assessed to determine if alterations are necessary.
Emergency planning should take account changing climatic extremes.
Although there are limited railways in Northern Ireland, links should be made with research programmes elsewhere in the UK with regards to adaptation measures such as coastal defences, flood risk and embankment stability.

Tourism:

Detailed sector-specific research into the impact of a changing climate on tourism in Northern Ireland. This should examine the opportunities for increased tourism that may be provided and the strategies and policies required to develop opportunities and adapt to impacts.
Education: for tourists and operators of their impacts on climate to ensure there are few barriers to the implementation of new adaptation measures and new opportunities are maximised.

Energy:

Improve the resilience of the electricity transmission network to weather.
Undertake a risk assessment of power stations in areas that may be vulnerable to flooding.
Ensure that the growing gas infrastructure is climate-proofed.
Consider adaptation in the planning of new energy infrastructure, particularly renewables infrastructure, with which there is little experience of weather impacts.
Undertake research into demand and consumption of energy with respect to climate change and socio-economic scenarios.

Social Wellbeing

Health:

Sector specific policy review looking at the impacts of a changing climate on health and wellbeing in Northern Ireland and their relation to competing considerations in the Northern Ireland health sector.
Consideration given to Northern Ireland being included within the UK Heat wave Plan.
Infectious disease surveillance should be strengthened.
Registries of extreme events and their impact on the public health should be set up for monitoring purposes.

Sport and recreation:

Sport and recreation tend to be reactive and strongly dominated by social factors, which make it difficult to effectively plan for climate change. Although generic impacts can be identified, there is a need for further basic research incorporating climate change and socio-economic scenarios, from which future policies can be developed.
There are significant opportunities for this and related sectors such as health; these will need to be realised through a coordinated approach involving education, transport, health and sector-specific agencies.

It is recommended that the sector-specific adaptation strategies are now taken forward and the risk-based assessment of impacts has provided an indicative prioritisation of the timetable for adaptation. Immediate priority should be given to the most significant impacts; for major threats and opportunity adaptive actions should be undertaken, or at least planned, in the short-term. Given the lag in the climate system, we are already committed to changes projected to about the year 2040 and therefore adaptive actions to initial impacts can be planned and executed with some certainty. Adaptive actions may require detailed sector-specific risk assessments, option appraisal and selection, and development of associated indicators and targets to benchmark progress.

For many adaptation cases there are opportunities for no or low-regret solutions, particularly in relation to improving the ability to cope with current weather-related impacts. There are also win-win opportunities to adapt to several impacts with one action. It will be necessary to re-evaluate impacts where the risk has been classified as unknown, especially where this may lead to a major threat. This will involve review of ongoing research and development of a better understanding of the sensitivity of receptors.

A number of general themes for climate change adaptation are apparent from across the sector- and impact-specific adaptation strategies. These can be grouped under the two main elements of the UK’s Adaptation Policy Framework:

Building adaptive capacity:

Delivering adaptive actions:

Raising awareness.
Increase training and knowledge.
Contribute to the development and use of climate change scenarios for Northern Ireland, to include comparison of EPA and UKCIP output.
Development of socio-economic scenarios for Northern Ireland for use alongside climate change scenarios in detailed impact assessments.
Review of legislation, regulations, policies and procedures with respect to protection from climate change and provision of incentives for adaptation.
Contingency / emergency planning.
Improve monitoring and records of extreme weather events.
Incorporate climate change into existing models.
Include climate impacts and adaptation in strategies and plans, with scheme specific risk assessments.
Consideration of cross-sector implications of responses: threats and opportunities.

Increase resilience e.g. diversification; buffer zones.
Accept losses where feasible e.g. coastal realignment.
Avoid losses e.g. by altering building materials.
Embrace change e.g. new species and maximising opportunities provided.
Exploiting opportunities provided by mitigation (e.g. woodland / forestry management).
Planning for risks and opportunities in new infrastructure projects (water, sewerage, flood risk, transport, construction etc).
Changes to management and maintenance practices to accommodate changes in climate.
In building design / construction: managing heat gain; energy, water and environmental efficiencies.
Enhanced health surveillance and heat-wave response.

Constraints to adaptation include uncertainty about future climate conditions and a lack of funding and human resources. The future is inherently uncertain and decision-making will need to incorporate uncertainty in climate change and socio-economic scenarios, drawing on appropriate techniques and new research. Flexibility and the implementation of no- and low-regret solutions will help avoid unnecessary adaptation. This will be particularly the case in terms of those sectors responsible for the management and development of infrastructure with typically long asset lives and high levels of investment; but it is equally appropriate for the environment / biodiversity sectors. A rise in the profile of climate change adaptation will need to be accompanied by appropriate resources to undertake detailed impact assessments and implement adaptation. In the short-term this may require funding for capacity building, while in the medium to long term funding may be required to deliver adaptive actions.

Next steps: a partnership of stakeholders

This study identifies the main issues that public services in Northern Ireland will need to consider in terms of the impacts and needs for adaptation to a changing climate. Option appraisal and selection, and development of associated indicators and targets should now be undertaken. This is likely to require more detailed quantitative assessment of impacts at the sector and scheme level, which may be guided by the risk assessments completed in this study. However, as the impacts and responses taken for one sector or organisation could significantly affect others, it is recommended that a Northern Ireland climate change partnership is established to facilitate and coordinate stakeholder engagement and consideration of issues within and between sectors. This should provide the foundation for ensuring that Northern Ireland is adequately prepared for the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: climate change, impacts, risk, adaptation, public service, Northern Ireland.

Copies of this report are available from the Foundation, in electronic format on CDRom at £20.00 + VAT or hard copy at £50.00, less 20% to FWR members.

N.B. The report is available for download from the SNIFFER Website