ForecastingWater Demand Using Weather Data

ReportNo WSAA 30

October 1991




Anoutline is given of the purpose and nature of forecasting and of the variousmethods and models used for forecasting. A model is developed for forecastingwater demand for an urban area using weather data (daily maximum temperatureand daily rainfall) and base usage as inputs.


Themodel forecasts water demand for a given day given the anticipated weatherparameters for that day and the weather parameters and water consumption forthe preceding day. The model is linear and the development is based on themethod of ‘Recursive Least Squares’. Coefficients of the model are assumed tobe time dependent.


Themodel was used to forecast water demand for Newcastle with a lead time of oneday. The model forecasted water demand within an accuracy of plus minus 5percent.


Copiesof the Report are available from WSAA, price $A20. Orders may be placed throughthe Bookshop at or by email to